This is going to be a different kind of post than I’m used to writing. I watched no film in preparation of this game. I didn’t have enough time. Instead, I thought I would dig into some stats. But not just any stats. Anyone can look up basic stats. I thought I would dig a little deeper. So I spent a lot of time compiling stats, then poring over them in spreadsheets. Sound exciting? Because it totally was.
So, for this week, Eye In The Sky became Eye On The Computer. Not quite as sexy, I guess, but no less informative. I wish I had a chance to do this every week in addition to my film study, but my job keeps getting in the way.
I’m not used to just writing about stats, so I hope this isn’t too dry.
I started by looking at home and away splits for each team. One of the talking points leading up to this game has been the fact that the Packers are 8-0 at home and the Cowboys are 8-0 on the road. “Something’s gotta give,” talking heads proclaim while pounding on the desk. My first stop on my statistical tour was seeing just how different these teams look depending on where they’re playing. I averaged the totals to give a view of what to expect in the average game.
Offensively, they’re better across the board at home. They actually allow fewer passing yards on the road, but they’re much better against the run at home. Also, between giving up 0.3 fewer turnovers and forcing 0.4 more turnovers, they’re 0.7 better in the turnover battle at home. That could be huge here.
Now, let’s look at the Cowboys.
This shows a team that scores slightly more points on the road, but only barely. The passing yards decline by 13.4, but the rushing yards increase by 11.7. They turn the ball over slightly less, but only slightly. They allow slightly more points on the road than at home.
In looking at these, I see a Packers team that is quite a bit different at home, while this Cowboys team is more or less the same.
That’s a good starting point, but that’s the last we’ll look at splits. With the short season the NFL has, it’s important to take as much data as we can to get the full picture. So, from here on out, we’ll be dealing with full season stats.
Pro Football Focus provides stats by passing direction & depth, as well as running by direction. However, they don’t provide this same information for defense. I was interested in seeing where the strength of each team lay, so I compiled the stats of how each of their opponents fared against them. From there, I figured I could spot their weak spots. By looking at that next to each team’s strengths, I could see where each team is most vulnerable. I was most interested in any area in which a team’s strength lined up against the other’s weakness. Is this a bit convoluted? Perhaps. But it was something I was curious about, so I assume some of you are as well.
Let’s start with the passing game.
I don’t want to bore you with the method, but it’s worth saying something about. I started with this grid, showing passing by direction and depth:
You probably guessed, but the “-0” block indicates throws behind the line of scrimmage. I looked at what teams had done in those zones against each team, then what Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo had done in those zones. From there, I was able to look at how each QB fared in each zone compared to how the defense looked. Basically, it’s a way to pinpoint the exact areas each QB and defense excels or fails in, then look at the difference. Where can Tony Romo attack the Packers defense, and vice versa.
This first table shows how the Packers defense fares in each zone with regards to QB rating (red is low, yellow is high):
An example of how to look at this: on the left side of the field 20+ yards deep, the Packers allow a QB rating of 82.6. My goal was to look at this alongside Romo’s QB rating by zone and see where the zones line up.
Here is Romo’s QB rating by zone:
In looking at this, it’s easy to envision a scenario in which Romo feasts on the middle of the field, 10+ yards deep. He excels in that area and the Packers struggle there.
Romo’s rating is pretty good on the right size in those same zones, but that’s where the Packers are at their best. On the year, the Packers have forced 7 interceptions in those zones, while Romo has thrown 3 interceptions. I don’t know if the Packers will hold Romo to those low ratings in that area, but they should be able to decrease his high ratings and perhaps even pick off a pass thrown in those zones.
Finally, I looked at average yards per game. For this one I wanted to see the difference between Romo’s averages and the Packers defense averages. So I found the difference and charted that:
Even though Romo has a high rating in the middle of the field 10-19 yards deep, he averages 12.73 yards fewer than the Packers typically allow. It looks like the Packers are susceptible to a big play in the middle of the field 20+ yards deep, but they appear to stack up favorably to Romo’s tendencies. If you add up his average yardage, you’ll notice that he averages 7.93 yards less than the average QB against the Packers.
Let’s take a look at Aaron Rodgers against the Cowboys defense.
First up: how the Cowboys defense fares against QB rating by zone.
And now Aaron Rodgers’ QB rating by zone.
Judging by this, it looks like Rodgers could make hay on the right side of the field, as well as short middle.
Lastly, Rodgers average yards vs. the Cowboys average yards.
That zone on the right 20+ yards deep seems like the place to target (it’s worth noting that the Cowboys have not intercepted a pass in that zone, and Rodgers hasn’t thrown one). Also, even though the Cowboys defend pretty well in the middle of the field 10-19 yards deep, the Packers have a high QB rating and an advantage of 16.81 yards over the average team the Cowboys face. Can’t you just see Jordy Nelson killing them on the right while Randall Cobb runs 10-19 yards deep in the middle? Those are some pretty big advantages. Look for the Packers to target those areas.
Add these all up, and you’ll find that the Packers gain 26.4 more yards than the average Cowboys opponent.
I do have one more passing stat to throw out. I looked at the PFF grades for each QB against each defense. I found that, on average, the Packers reduced a QB’s grade by 2.2 from his season average, while the Cowboys actually boosted a QB’s grade by 1.2. By this quick and easy model, here are the predicted PFF grades for the QBs in this game.
Tony Romo: -1.2
Aaron Rodgers: 3.7
The passing by zone seems to be more telling, but I still found this to be pretty interesting.
But what about the run game? Using the same process, I looked at runs by direction and saw where each team ranked above average.
Let’s start with the Cowboys.
It looks like they’ll be attacking right up the gut. That makes sense. The Packers don’t have that one huge run stopper. Letroy Guion has been better as the season has gone on, but he still is moved a bit too easily in the running game. Mike Daniels has been very good against the run this year, but his game isn’t built around clogging up the middle. All in all, the Cowboys would gain an average of 5.24 more yards on the ground than the average offense.
Now for the Packers.
The Packers are terrible off the left tackle. Again, this make sense. I’m a big fan of David Bakhtiari, but he still has a long way to go as far as run blocking is concerned (PFF rated him as Green Bay’s worst run blocker, coming in at -13.2 on the season). Meanwhile, the middle of the line looks downright inviting for the Packers to run through. Seeing as that area is occupied by three of the Packers best run blockers (T.J. Lang, Corey Linsley and Josh Sitton), this is no surprise. Give the ball to Lacy and have him plow forward behind them, and they could have a nice day running the ball.
As a whole, the Packers would lose an average of 0.25 yards on the ground than the average offense against the Cowboys.
Maybe I’m biased, but I look at all of this information and see a bunch of signs pointing to a Packers win. The Cowboys will move the ball and put up some points, but the Packers offense has been a machine at home, and the defense should be good enough to hold the Cowboys in check. Each team will hit some big plays, but I believe the Packers will hit more of those plays and win the turnover battle. Combine that with a solid running game, and you have a Packers team moving on to the NFC Championship Game. If the Packers are able to slow the Cowboys running game, they’ll have this game in the bag pretty early.
One final word on this game. It’s hard to know just how healthy Rodgers’ calf is. The extra week off certainly helps, but he was held out of practice until today (January 8). You can listen to Mike McCarthy’s press conferences, but there’s no way to know for sure just how healthy Rodgers is. Obviously he’ll be playing, but how close to 100% will he be? I’m not overly concerned, but a hobbled Rodgers is less-than-ideal. Still, he’s a good enough player that he’ll be able to be effective even when operating from within the confines of the pocket. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more quick throws, especially early in the game. Get him in rhythm. Keep him from moving too much. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them run the ball more to keep the pressure off of Rodgers. Eddie Lacy ran the ball 26 times against the Lions, his highest total of the year.
I always get nervous before a Packers playoff game, and this is no different. Still, I’m excited for the game, and looking at these stats have helped to keep me more optimistic than I have been in the past.
Go Pack Go.
Green And Gold Forever 