Here was Aaron Rodgers’ line for the night:
23/45 (51%), 259 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, QB Rating 65.0.
If you had given me that line before the game and asked me to predict the game, I would have said that the Giants win by at least 14.
With both secondaries banged up, I assumed this was going to be a shoot-out. Instead, Rodgers struggled for most of the night – even though he had plenty of time to throw – and Eli Manning threw for 199 yards and 1 TD on 51% passing. He missed some big throws, but he also had a hard time finding open receivers and was rushed for most of the night. The fearsome trio of Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard combined for 70 yards on 7 catches, with 1 TD. With Sam Shields out and Damarious Randall a late scratch, that’s pretty impressive.
The run defense was stout once again, holding the Giants to 3 yards per carry.
After a first half explosion against the Lions in Week 3, we had hoped that our offensive struggles were behind us. That does not appear to be the case. Prepare for yet another week of hand-wringing. But also know that, despite the struggles, the Packers are 3-1, with the only loss coming on the road against a Vikings team that appears to be legit. Obviously it’s never good to be looking up at the division lead, but it could be worse. Right now, the Packers are winning ugly. At some point that’s going to turn around.
Right?
Let’s get to the film.
THE BAD
This is in The Bad not because of the play call, but because of how it ends up. I have learned not to judge a play based on the result, but on the thought process behind it. A terrible thought process can occasionally yield a good play, and vice versa. Just because something works doesn’t mean you should keep doing it. The fact that it worked isn’t always the important part: why it worked is the more important thing to look at.
This is a time where everything goes right except one big detail. (For the record, I will be doing this again on the next play, because I do not listen to myself.)
This is a screen to James Starks [44] and it looks beautiful. The line lets the rush get in – but not too fast – and Starks is able to slip out undetected. A couple blockers get to the second level and take out a linebacker, while Jordy Nelson [87] blocks the cornerback on the outside. The only man left is the single-high safety, but the two offensive linemen should be able to get to him.
It’s all perfect…but Starks doesn’t hold onto the ball. Look at all that room in front of him. A little mini convoy leading him to glory. It’s unclear whether he would actually make it to the end zone, because he is now old and slow, but this would have been a sizable gain.
Instead, he drops it. The next play – a touchdown pass to Randall Cobb – was wiped out by a penalty, and the following play…well…let’s look at the following play.
This is the interception that glances off of Jordy Nelson’s [87] hands. He starts at the top of the screen, the lead receiver in the stack formation. Richard Rodgers [82] is behind him. The Giants are essentially in Quarters on the left side of their defense and man-to-man on the right.
Richard Rodgers gives a slight hesitation at the line, then runs straight, eventually settling on a curl. The cornerback stays with Rodgers, while the two inside linebackers are frozen by James Starks [44] out of the backfield, as well as the possibility of Rodgers running a dig.
Meanwhile, Nelson runs a dig 5 yards deeper than Rodgers. With the linebackers frozen in place, Aaron Rodgers [12] has a window to fit the ball into Nelson. He throws a little high, in case the linebacker is able to get over to bother the throw. It’s a perfect throw into a tight window. It hits Nelson in the hands, bounces up and turns into an interception.
Here it is from another angle:
Again, Rodgers throws a little high, but you can see why he had to. If Keenan Robinson [57] cheats a little more to the middle of the field, he would be in a perfect position to knock down (or intercept) a lower throw. The higher throw means a slightly tougher catch for Nelson, but it means Robinson won’t be able to reach it.
As it turns out, it didn’t matter. The pass is intercepted anyway.
I can’t stop watching this angle. Rodgers is looking to the right for most of the play, holding Robinson in place. When it’s time to throw, he unleashes an absolute bullet that hits Nelson in stride, just as he’s clearing Robinson. It’s a great play by Rodgers, and a good route combination with Richard Rodgers to ensure Aaron Rodgers would only have to deal with the one linebacker. Everything looked perfect, until it didn’t.
Here is a play I just don’t understand. Early in the 4th quarter, the Packers faced a 3rd and 11 on the Giants 24. The Giants are in Cover 2 Zone Under, with some deep drops from the linebackers with the intention on keeping the play in front of them.
Aaron Rodgers [87] drops back and has a little time to survey the field. Randall Cobb [18] and Richard Rodgers [82] run dual outs at the sticks to the top of the screen. Davante Adams [17] – also at the top – runs a corner route behind Cobb. A slightly deeper cut by Adams may have helped create a bit more space for Cobb, as one defender can essentially cover Cobb and Adams on this play, but it’s not a huge deal. A laser to either one of them would likely have been complete (although Cobb is slightly short of the sticks and would have had to make a move to get the needed yardage).
At the bottom, we have Jordy Nelson [87] bending slightly in before running a corner, while James Starks [44] sets up in the flat.
As I look at these routes, there’s not much there. Nelson is slightly open out of his break, but it would take a perfect throw to get there, as the safety is closing. Adams is maybe open, but, again, it would take a perfect throw. I think the move would have been to throw to Cobb out of the break, hoping he is able to pick up a couple yards after the catch (given how he played, that would have been a decent bet). At the time Cobb is going into his break, Rodgers has a clean pocket and is looking that direction. An on-time throw to Cobb likely picks up the first down. Instead he hesitates. A rusher breaks through the line and he throws a checkdown to Starks.
This isn’t a terrible move. Between Nelson running a deep route to that side and the deep drops from the linebackers, there’s a lot of room to run. Starks ends up picking up 9 yards on the play, but can’t quite get 11.
So we have two problems with this play.
1. Rodgers did not throw to Cobb out of the break.
2. Starks no longer has the quickness or elusiveness to make a defender miss in the open field.
Starks was never a shaker, but he had some moves and could lower his shoulder if need be, and the threat of his moves was enough to get some defenders a bit off balance.
I’m not saying that another running back could have picked this up: gaining 11 yards on a checkdown with no blocking is a tall task no matter the running back. But a quicker back would have had a better chance.
I love James Starks. I’ll always remember what he did in the 2010 Super Bowl run (particularly his huge game in Philadelphia). But he simply doesn’t have the skills to be an effective back anymore. I think it’s time to cut him loose.
Let’s close out The Bad by looking at a play from Blake Martinez [50]. The defense played well overall, and Martinez has been decent so far this season, but he has struggled a bit. Nothing concerning – he’s a rookie, after all – but he has had quite a few negative plays that have stood out.
He starts this play on the left side of the defense, and it’s easy to see what happens. It’s a simple play action and Martinez completely bites on it, losing his assignment. He and Jake Ryan [47] are in zone in the middle. Ryan takes a step up on the fake, but Martinez completely sprints towards the line. This allows Will Tye [47] to get behind him for an easy completion.
Again, Martinez hasn’t been terrible, but it’s telling that Joe Thomas [48] played more snaps than Martinez in this game (Thomas played 41, Martinez played 15). Thomas has been tremendous, and Martinez hasn’t been quite as good as hoped. I believe he’ll get there – he seems like an intelligent player – but he’s not there quite yet. On top of that, Joe Thomas has been a wrecking ball this season.
THE GOOD
Speaking of Joe Thomas being a wrecking ball…
Joe Thomas [48] starts this play in the middle, on the right side. He’s man-to-man with Bobby Rainey [43] out of the backfield. You can see how he does a few tiny side steps to make sure he stays with Rainey: nothing huge, but he’s keeping the angle. This is huge when the throw comes out. His side steps put him just out of range of the oncoming blockers from the inside. Thomas crashes and hits Rainey in the backfield.
It’s unfortunate that he misses the tackle, but his hit slowed Rainey down enough for Kyler Fackrell [51] and Nick Perry [53] to converge and clean up.
Thomas has had a terrific season so far. No one is more excited about it than I am. Except for Joe Thomas. And probably his family and friends.
You know what? There are probably a lot of people more excited about what Joe Thomas is doing this year than I am. But I’m still very excited.
While I’m talking about the defense, let’s look at this strip sack from Kyler Fackrell [51] coming off the right side. I love this move. He speed rushes off the end and gets his hands into the body of Bobby Hart [68]. Hart is playing a bit over his feet. Fackrell recognizes this and rips through Hart, leaving him blocking air in an instant. Fackrell uses the rip move to build up some momentum, which allows him to close on Eli Manning [10] in a few steps. He gets his hands around Manning’s arms and the ball comes popping out.
Fackrell hasn’t shown that he can be consistent, but he has shown enough flashes so far to get excited about.
Let’s look at a couple plays from the offense before we call it a day.
It’s not often I praise Davante Adams [17] in this space, so when I do I have to make sure to show it from multiple angles. He starts this play as the lone receiver at the bottom. The Giants are in Cover 2 Zone Under.
It’s a quick route and look by Adams. He gives the cornerback a quick move at the line then runs inside to get position. The cornerback turns his hips, Adams looks in and Aaron Rodgers [12] whips a pass perfectly between two defenders. From there, Adams makes a nifty move and picks up a decent chunk of yards after the catch.
I said I was praising Adams, and I meant it. It was a good route, good catch and good run after the catch. But I’m also going to praise Aaron Rodgers [12]. I love watching him manipulate the defense.
At the snap, you can see Rodgers look to his right. That freezes Keenan Robinson [57], the underneath linebacker on the left. When Rodgers doesn’t see what he likes on the right, he looks to his left. But he doesn’t look at Adams: he looks at Robinson for a split second first, to make sure he is where Rodgers wants him. When he sees Robinson is too wide to get inside coverage on Adams, Rodgers looks to Adams, sees the cornerback on his outside hip and throws a rocket between defenders.
Were he to look at Adams first, Robinson would be a step closer to that side and that throwing lane is gone. If he looks to Adams before looking at Robinson, Robinson would react and tighten the window. This is a masterful job of Rodgers getting exactly what he wants by not telegraphing his intentions.
This is just a beautiful play.
Jordy Nelson [87] starts the play on the left side, but comes in motion to the right, stopping at the end of the line. With a corner following him across the formation, this signaled to Aaron Rodgers [12] that the Giants were in man. At the snap Richard Rodgers [82] basically runs a clear-out route, heading straight down field. The intention is to muddle things up for the defense, and that’s exactly what happens.
Randall Cobb [18] is offset in the backfield. He comes out of the backfield and runs an out. There is some confusion among the defenders as to who covers Cobb, so he is uncovered.
Jordy Nelson runs a drag underneath Richard Rodgers. Nelson’s defender is caught on the other side of Richard Rodgers. He tries to fight through, but he started too far outside and can’t get through the mass of bodies. The lone remaining linebacker in the middle is occupied when Aaron Ripkowski [22] comes out of the backfield, leaving a wide open field for Nelson to run into.
With pressure in the backfield, Aaron Rodgers [12] throws to Nelson just before the rush hits home. He’s able to get the pass off and Nelson has plenty of room to run. By the time all is said and done, it was a 17 yard gain.
These are the kinds of things that can happen when you scheme guys open.
While we’re talking about Jordy Nelson, let’s watch this short clip of his touchdown catch. I don’t have much to say about it, other than it’s a great catch and I love this angle of it and I love Jordy Nelson and I’m sure Jordy’s Farm Fresh Flakes cereal is delicious and I wish I could find a box in Kentucky and we should be best friends and Randall Cobb too.
I apologize for the run-on sentence. I have a lot of love in my heart.
This play came on the first drive and it shows a little of how the Packers are able to scheme Randall Cobb [18] open. There’s really not much to this play. Cobb is lined up to the left of Richard Rodgers [82] in the slot. The Giants are in Cover 3 Zone Under. At the snap, Rodgers runs a lazy dig over the middle. Cobb gives a little hesitation move to Olivier Vernon [54], who then drops back into his zone. With Rodgers running a stacked route over Cobb, it clears out the coverage in the middle. Aaron Rodgers [12] sees this. Combine that with the Giants bringing two linebackers to rush the quarterback, it’s an easy hot read for Rodgers, and an easy first down for the Packers.
Since I started talking about Randall Cobb [18], let’s just keep rolling. We just watched Cobb get open through scheme and hot route read: now let’s watch him get open on his own.
The Giants appear to be in Cover 1 Man Under, with some zone elements in the middle. Cobb starts the play in the slot. He fires off the line and engages with his defender, selling the play action fake. Once the fake is over, Cobb is able to disengage and cut to the outside in one motion. The move is so quick that the defender is still thinking run for a split second. That’s all it takes for Cobb to create space. With Nelson running a go route on that side, it ensures that Cobb will be man-to-man. Aaron Rodgers [12] rolls left and it’s an easy throw to a wide open Cobb.
Rolling on with our celebration of Cobb, I present to you this play. Once again, Cobb lines up in the slot. Giants are in Cover 1 Man Under. At the snap, Cobb gives a little fake inside and cuts outside his defender. With that one move he created space for his entire route. Already having a step on his man, Cobb runs a crisp, 10 yard out.
Jeff Janis [83] is running a go route on that side, not only dragging his man with him but also drawing the attention of the single high safety, leaving Cobb man-to-man. With Cobb leaving his man in the dust off the line, Aaron Rodgers [12] throws a laser to the outside and Cobb has enough room between him and the sideline to turn upfield and pick up another 11 yards.
Beating his man off the line was crucial, but having speed on the field also helped to open this up. With Janis on Cobb’s side and Jordy Nelson [87] on the other, the single high safety starts the play 18 yards off the line. Cobb still had to beat his man, but if the defense was squeezing the offense like it had been recently, there is a lot less room to make this throw.
This shows the benefit of having speed on the field, and it’s a wonderful thing.
On third and 8, let’s just marvel as Cobb bounces off defenders, picks up a late wall of blocking and picks up a first down. This may be my favorite play of the day.
Let’s finish up with the game-clinching first down. I cut off the ending because I didn’t want to see Randall Cobb [18] get hit by Landon Collins [21] in the neck again.
If this route looks familiar, it’s because we basically watched him do the exact same thing earlier. The shake at the line doesn’t work quite as well, but he’s able to muscle his way to his defender’s outside shoulder. Once he has that position, all he needs to do is get out of his cut quickly, which he does. In fact, he gets out so forcefully that his man loses his footing and falls over. (At first glance, it looks like Cobb may extend his arm and shove his man. After watching this play dozens of times from a couple angles, I don’t believe that he did. It’s just a quick cut and his arm shoots out as he cuts.)
Cobb catches the ball a couple yards short of the first down marker, but he has enough space to turn upfield, pick up the necessary yardage and go down in bounds to keep the clock running.
Unfortunately, it’s exactly that last act that causes the injury. If he were able to slip out of bounds after picking up the first down, he would have been fine. But, in an attempt to keep himself in bounds, he dove back inside, directly into the oncoming Collins. It was an unfortunate event. It looked bad on the field, but it sounds like it wasn’t nearly as bad as it could have been. Throughout his career, Cobb has shown an ability to heal at superhuman speeds. I hope that is the case with this injury. A game like this showed just how big of a difference Cobb can make when he’s at his best.
Random Thoughts:
– When throwing within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, Aaron Rodgers was 22/33 (66.7%) for 223 yards (6.8 yards per attempt), 1 touchdown and 1 interception (QB Rating 83.3). These accounted for 68.75% of passing plays.
– When throwing deeper than 15 yards, Rodgers was 3/15 (20%) for 93 yards (6.2 yards per attempt), 1 touchdown and 1 interception (QB Rating 47.4). These accounted for 31.25% of passing plays.
– Against this same Giants defense only a week earlier, Sam Bradford completed 73.3% of his passes, and the Vikings line did not give him the same amount of time that the Packers line gave Rodgers.
– Randall Cobb was a monster in this game, hauling in 9 passes on 11 targets (81.8%) for 108 yards. Two of those receptions were huge third down conversions, the last of which clinched the game. It was his first 100 yard game since Week 2 against the Seahawks last season. When throwing to Cobb, Rodgers had a QB Rating of 137.9.
– Jordy Nelson, on the other hand, had a night to forget. He had a really nice touchdown catch, but he saw a couple balls glance off his hands, one of which directly caused a red zone interception. He finished the day with 4 receptions on 13 targets (30.1%) for 38 yards and a touchdown. When throwing to Nelson, Rodgers had a QB Rating of 33.8.
– Aaron Ripkowski ran the ball twice and made the most of both opportunities. He gained 17 yards, pushing the pile forward both times.
– On a nice night, Jake Schum’s average punt was 36.5 yards, with a long of 42. He had two 33 yard punts. That is unacceptable. If that’s what he’s doing in early October, I hate to think what he’s going to be doing in December.
Albums listened to: La Sera – Queens; Jenny O. – Work EP; Bon Iver – 22, A Million; Happyness – Tunnel Vision on Your Part; The Cure – Disintegration; Regina Spektor – Remember Us To Life
You can find me on Twitter at @DustyEvely. Every week I make gifs for more plays than I can cover here, so I’ll be posting some quick looks there.
Green And Gold Forever 