It didn’t look very good for a while. Things got pretty tense in my house. My dog begged to be let outside. “Anywhere is better than here,” she told me. But, at the end of the day, the Packers pulled out a victory and a trip to the NFC Championship game. While it’s easy to want to look ahead to the next week, I decided to celebrate this victory for at least a few days. I’m still feeling giddy from the win. The season is long and the playoffs are often heartbreaking. We gotta celebrate the good times while we’ve got ‘em.
Before I dig in, I’d like to take a few words to talk about the Dez Bryant no-catch. I’ve watched that play countless times and studied it like it was the Patterson-Gimlin footage.
Most accounts I’ve read arguing that it was a catch say that he took three steps with control before going to the ground. That’s untrue. Sam Shields knocked the ball free after it hit Bryant’s hands, and he never really gained control of it until he had already taken two steps, meaning only one foot was down with control before he went to the ground. From there, he went to the ground, the bottom of the ball hit the ground and popped it up, after which he regained control.
There were plenty of hot takes. Scorching takes. “I don’t even know what a catch is anymore,” people breathlessly proclaimed.
When I first saw it, I thought it was a catch, but it only took one replay to change my mind. He had one foot down with control, went to the ground, ball hit the ground and popped up. Not a catch.
Admittedly, I would be upset if that call was against the Packers, but I would also agree that it was the correct call. I hate that this call marred the game in the minds of some people, but, in reality, the game wasn’t over for the Packers even if Bryant had caught it. The Packers would have gotten the ball back with a little less than 4 minutes on the clock and a hot QB. It’s a different situation, but I would have liked the Packers chances.
Enough about that. Let’s get to the film. As always, stats and ratings courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Let’s start off with something fun, shall we?
Poor J.J. Wilcox is still trying to figure out what happened.
This is the second play of the game. Despite DeMarco Murray’s final numbers (23 rushes for 123 yards), the Packers actually did a pretty good job holding him in check for the majority of the game. He broke 2 long runs and gained decent ground on a few others, but, on the day, 15 of his attempts (60%) were for 3 yards or fewer. This is an early example of the kind of defensive play that allowed them to do that.
Clay Matthews (52) is shooting the gap here. It would have been nice if he had gotten the tackle in the backfield. Looking at this image, that certainly seems to be the way this play will end.
However, he takes a weird path and ends up a step behind. At first I thought he just didn’t hit the hole like he should have. The more I watched it, the more I understood what he was doing. He hesitated towards the right side of the hole to make sure he was in a good position to make the tackle if Murray were to hit that hole. In doing this, he was assured that the run would be stretched out, but he also cost himself a chance at the tackle. I can’t fault him for that. If Matthews had gotten himself out of position, Murray would have had a huge hole to cut back into.
Instead, Matthews barely misses the tackle but succeeds in stringing out the play. Sam Barrington (58) set a great edge on this play, and gets off his block just as Murray is cutting his way. He makes the tackle at the sideline for no gain. Mike Daniels (76) is also coming over the top in case Murray is able to break free. Just a great, disciplined play. They had to do this to have a chance at stopping Murray, and, more often than not, they were able to do it.
Take away his two long runs, and Murray averaged 2.9 yards a carry. I know you can’t take those carries away, but my point is that, for the most part, they bottled up Murray very well this game. He wasn’t consistently gashing them for yardage on every carry. The Packers weren’t always getting a great push up front, but they were disciplined in their gap coverage.
I wanted to show this play to highlight the great run blocking by the Packers line. They’ve been dynamite all year, but I haven’t gone to great lengths to point out just how well they work together.
At the snap, TJ Lang (70) and Corey Linsley (63) double-team Josh Brent (96) in the middle. Bryan Bulaga (75) is on the outside, matched up on George Selvie (99). Josh Sitton (71) and David Bakhtiari (69) are holding down the other side. John Kuhn (30) is coming through the hole, looking for someone to block.
You can see where this could spell trouble. Eddie Lacy (27) has a big hole to hit, but Rolando McClain (55) is shooting the gap and looks primed to hit Lacy in the backfield.
I would also like to direct your attention to the left side of the image, where Randall Cobb (18) is flashing into the frame.
Linsley is able to slide off his block of Brent and take out McClain before he’s able to lay a hit on Lacy. It’s great recognition and a great move to lay that block.
You’ll also notice that Cobb is in the process of laying a block on J.J. Wilcox (27). This is huge. By taking out Wilcox, it allows Kuhn to move on to Orlando Scandrick (32). Without Cobb’s block, Kuhn has to block Wilcox and Lacy is likely tackled by Scandrick. It would be a decent gain, but not a huge one.
Kuhn never actually lays a block, but he is able to wall off Scandrick from taking out Lacy.
By the end of the play, Lacy had rumbled for 19 yards. It’s a great job of blocking across the board, with Linsley providing the key block up front. Poetry in motion.
After that much praise, I think we’re due to come down a little. So I present you with Terrance Williams’ (83) touchdown reception. Williams is lined up at the bottom, with Tramon Williams (38) giving a huge cushion and looking into the backfield.
First of all, look at the coverage here. The Packers did this a lot in the game. A single-high safety – usually Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (23) – shaded on Dez Bryant’s (88) side, and a lot of guys close to the line. This was the Packers basically saying, “Dez Bryant scares us, but no one else really does, and we’re concerned with your running game.”
Tony Romo (9) is in the process of throwing the ball, right as Williams is starting to cut. Tramon Williams is rushing to get there, but he aims a little too much to the outside in his tackle.
He’s able to get his hands on Terrance Williams, but just enough to help him turn. Micah Hyde (33) is coming from the middle, and Clinton-Dix is coming from deep.
Here’s the problem: Hyde isn’t in bad position. He’s not likely to make the tackle, but he forces Williams to declare. Williams goes inside. That’s fine. The problem here is Clinton-Dix. He came over too far. He should have stayed slightly deeper and more towards the middle. The depth would allow him more time to figure out where Williams was going. Being in the middle allows himself not to get pinned to the sideline. It gives him more room to work; more room to create a tackling angle.
It’s also worth looking at Sam Shields (37) in the middle, who seems unaware that a ball has been caught.
Williams cuts back inside, and Clinton-Dix is burned. Being the only deep safety, there’s no one left for Williams to beat.
Now that we’re all sad, let’s look at the big completion to Cobb near the end of the first half. I’m a roller coaster of emotions today.
From the bottom, the receivers are Jordy Nelson (87), Randall Cobb (18) and Andrew Quarless (81).
They all streak for about 15 yards, then they start to break off. Nelson is running a fly, while Cobb and Quarless are running stacked sideline routes, roughly 5 yards apart.
You can see what this does to the zone defense. The deep man has to stay with Nelson, while the short man squats on Quarless. That leaves a window to throw to Cobb.
At this point, Rodgers is starting to throw the ball. The deep man has peeled off his coverage of Nelson, as the responsibility now lies with the safety in the middle. You can see how much room Cobb (at the 37) has around him. Even with all that room, this is not an easy throw.
But Rodgers places it perfectly, and Cobb makes a great catch on the sideline. This was a great call and perfect execution in a huge moment.
Let’s take a look at Julius Peppers’ (56) forced fumble of DeMarco Murray.
At the snap, James Hanna (84) looks inside to seal off Sam Barrington (58) in the middle, while Zack Martin (70) pulls to take care of Peppers on the edge (for the record, Martin graded out as the third best RG in the league this year, behind only Marshall Yanda and T.J. Lang).
Peppers is a wily fella. He’s able to side-step Martin just enough so that Martin can’t quite block him full-on.
With Ronald Leary (65) pulling through the hole to block Morgan Burnett (42), this has all the markings of a big gain.
But there is Peppers, shedding his block and diving towards Murray.
And there’s the forced fumble. A tremendous play by Peppers.
I know a lot of people have said that Peppers stopped a touchdown run here. While it could have gone for a touchdown, I think it’s a bit much to say that it absolutely would have gone for a touchdown. If you look to the top left, you’ll see Clinton-Dix coming into view. His tackling has been a constant source of frustration this year, but to say that he wouldn’t have been able to make a play seems like a bit of a stretch. Still, this was a huge play by Peppers.
We already looked at one great run-blocking play, but let’s take a look at another. This one takes place two plays after the fumble.
Everyone locks on immediately. Linsley and Lang double-up to take Brent. This proves to be a tough job, but they do very well with it. Bulaga immediately gets Selvie off-balance and throws him to the ground. Bakhtiari is on Jeremy Mincey (92). While Mincey lunges, Baktiari meets him with great balance. Kuhn is coming through the hole with his eyes on Anthony Hitchens (59). Bruce Carter (54) has a chance to shoot the gap, but we’ll see what happens to that in the next images.
Carter gets too deep into the gap and is walled off by blockers. Bakhtiari turns Selvie out, and Kuhn is laying a block on Hitchens. If Kuhn could force Hitchens towards the sideline, it would make for an enormous hole to run through. As it is, there is still a hole, but Lacy has to hit between Hitchens and the pushing Brent in the middle.
Lacy puts two hands on the ball (I like seeing that ball security) and hits the hole. Brent is trying to get to the gap, but he just can’t get there. So what does he do? (Hint: watch the leg.)
That’s right. He tries to trip Lacy. A sneaky move. Had Lacy gone down, there is a very small chance tripping would be called. “Incidental contact,” or something like that. From watching this play quite a few times, it’s clear that Brent was indeed trying to trip Lacy.
No matter. Lacy gets through the hole and is heading for a big gain.
One final image on this play:
On the right side, you will see Davante Adams (17) engaging in some great downfield blocking. By the time the dust had settled, Lacy had gained 29 yards.
Once again, I find myself being too positive. This game wasn’t all sunshine and roses, so let’s take a look at one of Murray’s long runs.
Gavin Escobar (89) started on the left side of the formation. As he motioned to the right, Sean Richardson (28) moved over with him.
Nothing really looks too alarming at the snap. Richardson and Barrington are both shading towards the right. Escobar is blocking Morgan Burnett, while Zack Martin pulls across to set the edge.
Here is where it starts going bad. Barrington isn’t in bad position, but he’s caught leaning to the inside. Murray could cut on either side of Tyler Clutts (44), so Barrington has to split the difference. But he should be just a shade wider and a little further back of the line.
Meanwhile, Richardson should be a little wider. He came in a little too far and Martin is able to line him up perfectly. If he’s a little wider, he would be in a better position to elude the block and set the edge.
Barrington gets caught up in the Clutts block, and Richardson is completely locked up with Martin. You know what happens from here: Murray easily gets the edge and picks up 26 yards. He is run out of bounds by Clinton-Dix at the 1 yard line, and the Cowboys would score a touchdown on the next play.
Jason Witten (82) killed the Packers all day. That’s not a surprise, seeing as how the defense has a long history of being gouged by tight ends. On the day, Witten caught 6 passes (out of 7 targets) for 71 yards. Those aren’t necessarily eye-popping numbers, but it seems like he was always there when Romo needed him.
Take this play, for example. Packers are showing blitz. Romo sees it. So does Witten.
At the snap, Romo immediately looks at Witten. In fact, he never looks anywhere else. If you’ll look to the left, you’ll see Nick Perry (53) flashing across the formation. Romo doesn’t see him.
For some reason, Perry pulls up in the middle of the field just as Romo is releasing and Witten is curling. I’m guessing Perry thought it was a crossing route and didn’t want to run himself out of the play. But, knowing there’s a blitz, he has to know that Romo is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly.
Even with that hesitation, he is almost able to knock the ball down. But he can’t quite get there, and the Cowboys pick up a nice gain against the blitz. If Perry had continued towards Witten – the only receiver in his area of the field – this could have been an interception.
And now, the moment you’ve all been waiting for (or, at the very least, the play I was most interested to look at as soon as the film was released): the third down conversion that clinched the win.
Cobb starts off in the backfield, but motions out wide. The defender moves with him, signaling man-to-man. With the single-high safety shading to the left, Rodgers knows there won’t be anyone over the top for Cobb and Jarrett Boykin (11).
Boykin runs a fly, while Cobb appears to be running an out. He is being grabbed very early on, but it’s within 5 yards (I know holding isn’t legal even inside of 5 yards, but contact is. This seems like holding, but it could go either way, so the refs swallowed their whistles. I’m perfectly okay with that).
A rusher comes off the edge. Rodgers has nowhere to go with the ball. Look across the board: not a single receiver open.
Rodgers fires deep for Boykin, who is being blanketed. It’s unclear what the thought process is here. Most likely, it’s “Throw it up and hope my guy makes a play.” In this situation, the smart move would be to just take a sack (or, rather, lay down and cover the ball). This play started with 2 minutes left, and the Cowboys were out of timeouts. If Rodgers eats the ball, the clock keeps running, the Packers punt and the Cowboys have around 1:10 to drive the ball and pick up a touchdown. If the pass is incomplete, the Cowboys still have to drive for a touchdown, but they’ll have roughly 40 more seconds to do it.
Taking the sack would be the smart play, but I can’t fault Rodgers for going for the kill shot. If the pass is complete, the game is over.
The ball is tipped, so it never comes close to Boykin. But it doesn’t matter.
Cobb makes a tremendous adjustment on the ball, fights through his defender and makes a spectacular catch. Cobb comes up big in a big moment. What else is new? Packers pick up 12 on third and 11 to ice the game.
And there was much rejoicing. Yaaaaaay.
After looking at that last play, are you excited yet still hungry for one more? You bet you are.
What a throw. What a ridiculous, beautiful throw.
Random thoughts:
– The highest rated offensive player was Randall Cobb (3.9). He caught 8 passes (out of 10 targets) for 116 yards. When throwing in his direction, Aaron Rodgers’ QB rating was 115.0.
– The highest rated defensive player is a tie between Mike Daniels and Julius Peppers (3.8). Daniels had a very good day as a pass rusher (1 sack and 1 QB hit), but was an absolute monster as a run defender. Peppers was also a force in both areas, forcing two sacks and just being a general nuisance to the Cowboys.
– The lowest rated offensive player was Andrew Quarless (-1.7). He was dinged hard for his two false start penalties (-1.9). As a receiver, he caught all 4 balls thrown his way for 31 yards and a touchdown. He also recovered what could have been a disastrous Randall Cobb fumble on a kick return. I don’t agree with this grade, Andrew. I just want you to know that.
– The lowest rated defensive player was Morgan Burnett (-3.8). He rated a dismal -3.1 in pass coverage. When the Packers go with a single-deep safety, it’s normally Clinton-Dix as the deep man and Burnett playing in the box.
– Jordy Nelson did not have a good day (-1.5), catching only 2 passes (of 5 targets) for 22 yards. He dropped a pass in tight coverage. It would have been a great catch, but he’s no stranger to great catches. I paid attention to the coverage they were throwing his way, and didn’t really see anything strange. The Cowboys didn’t appear to be paying special attention to him. Sometimes they would shade a safety on his side, but they seemed to be in a two-deep look more often than not. Brandon Carr was matched up on him for most the game, and he did a pretty good job in coverage. I will say that the two-deep look discouraged deep passes, and Nelson seemed to be running quite a few deep routes.
– Meanwhile, Davante Adams had a great game (2.1), catching 7 passes (of 11 targets) for 117 yards and a touchdown. (For a reminder of his touchdown, scroll to the top and watch that GIF again.) On top of the touchdown, he had a number of huge catches down the stretch (my favorite being a catch on third down where he ripped the ball away from a defender, spun to the inside and picked up 26 yards). He was a force to be reckoned with. That’s the Davante I know.
Final thoughts:
This was a good win. A stressful win, but a good win. Going into this game, I was concerned about the Cowboys running game. Aside from a couple big runs, they held it in check. They’ll need to bring that same disciplined defense to Seattle this week. The Seahawks don’t have a great run blocking line (-17.6), but they have a very good running game (30.8), due in part to Marshawn Lynch’s ability to bounce off tackles and Russell Wilson’s ability to know when to tuck the ball and run. This is going to be tough, but I believe the Packers defense is up for the challenge. They’re better than they were in Week 1, and I’m excited to see them show it.
On the offensive side, I’m obviously concerned about Aaron Rodgers. He got more comfortable as this game went on, but he was clearly not 100%. The Seahawks have a good pass rush and are good in coverage. It’s going to be hard to get many big plays, but it’s also going to be hard to sustain a drive of 12 plays to score. The offensive line is terrific, though. Rodgers had plenty of time against the Cowboys, but he doesn’t look overly comfortable with his movement. He’s going to need to be better about sliding in the pocket in this game. The Seahawks are going to try to move Rodgers off his spot, but I believe the line will be able to keep Rodgers from taking too many hits.
I can see a heavy reliance on the running game from both teams. It should be a low-scoring affair. I have faith that the Packers can pull it out.
Albums listened to while watching film: Led Zeppelin – Led Zeppelin I; The Lassie Foundation – Pacifico; Pavement – Crooked Rain Crooked Rain; R.E.M. – Murmur; The Traditional – How To Live Without Blood; Sigur Ros – Kveikur; Queens – End Times; The Jezabels – The Brink
Green And Gold Forever 